Further Analysis of World Cup Group B
Well, I was premature in saying that the West Indies were certain of a place in the Super Six "unless Canada beat New Zealand or anything like that". Of course, I should have said "provided all the 'good teams' beat all the 'minnows'". The possibility that I did not mention but which could I suppose have been covered by "or something like that" was a tie or a "no result" in a game between a good side and a minnow. And this is what happened today. The West Indies were in a good position to beat Bangladesh, but then the rain fell and the game was abandoned, with each side picking up two points. This means that the West Indies now have to beat (or draw/tie with) Sri Lanka to be certain of a place in the Super Six.
If South Africa loses to Sri Lanka, everything is unchanged. South Africa miss out, and West Indies, Sri Lanka, and New Zealand go through. If South Africa and Sri Lanka is a tie or no result, then again South Africa miss out. (If this happens and West Indies lose to Sri Lanka, then West Indies and South Africa are equal on points, but West Indies go through on head to head results).
However, if South Africa beat Sri Lanka, then things get interesting. If this happens and West Indies beat Sri Lanka, then the final points table is as follows:
WI 18
SL 16
NZ 16
SA 16
and the two sides with the best net runrate out of Sri Lanka, New Zealand, and South Africa go through along with the West Indies. This is essentially unchanged.
If South Africa beat Sri Lanka, and West Indies v Sri Lanka is washed out or a tie, then the final table is
SL 18
WI 16
NZ 16
SA 16
In this case, the West Indies will have only won 3 games, whereas the other two will have won 4 games, and New Zealand and South Africa will go through ahead of them due to having won more games. If this happens, I think the ruling is extremely harsh, as the West Indies will only have won fewer games due to the weather. However, this is the rules.
If South Africa beat Sri Lanka, and Sri Lanka beat the West Indies, the final table is
SL 20
NZ 16
SA 16
WI 14
in which case Sri Lanka, New Zealand and South Africa go through.
So the only case affected by today's result is the situation where South Africa defeat Sri Lanka and Sri Lanka defeat the West Indies, in which case South Africa instead of the West Indies will go through.
In short, today's result is rought for the West Indies, but going through to the next round is still in their hands. Beat Sri Lanka, and everything is peachy.
All the above assumes that New Zealand do not play in Kenya. If they do, and they win, as I expect, then the possiblities are as follows:
If South Africa lose or tie/no result with Sri Lanka, everything is as above.
If South Africa beat Sri Lanka, then we have three cases
(1) West Indies beat Sri Lanka also, this gives
NZ 20
WI 18
SL 16
SA 16
and South Africa go through on the head to head result
(2) West Indies tie/no result with Sri Lanka
NZ 20
WI 16
SL 16
SA 16
and WI are eliminated due to having fewer wins, again a very rough call for them.
(3)
NZ 20
SL 16
SA 16
WI 14
and WI are eliminated.
Once again we conclude that the rain today was rough on the West Indies.
Analysis of World Cup Points Tables as of February 16
In Group B, as in Group A, there are two classes of team. There are what I would descibe as "good teams" and "minnows". The "good teams" are West Indies, South Africa, New Zealand and Sri Lanka. The "minnows" are Kenya, Canada, and Bangladesh. It is to be assumed that a "good team" will beat a "minnow" on almost all occasions, and that three of the four "good teams" will go through to the Super Six stage. Which ones it will be will be determined by the results of the various matches between the . As of February 16, there are only two games to go in which both opponents are "good teams". These are Sri Lanka v West Indies and Sri Lanka v South Africa. The only side to have completed all its games against other "good sides" is New Zealand. If New Zealand plays its game in Kenya, then it will end up with 20 points, which would guarantee it a place in the Super 6. However, NZ has said it will default this game, meaning it will end up with 16 points. (The current points table is
here)
Assuming they beat the minnows, West Indies, New Zealand and Sri Lanka are all guaranteed to finish on at least 16 points.
In order to also reach 16 points, South Africa must defeat Sri Lanka. If South Africa does not defeat Sri Lanka, then South Africa will be eliminated. In this case, the Super Six teams are NZ, WI, and SL.
Now if, South Africa does defeat Sri Lanka, then what happens depends on the other match.
If Sri Lanka defeats West Indies, then the final points table is this
SL 20
WI 16
NZ 16
RSA 16
The rules state that in the case of equal points, then the team with the most wins goes through. However, these teams have the same number of wins. The rules then state that the team winning head to head matches goes through. New Zealand beat both West Indies and South Africa, so New Zealand goes through. Then we look at West Indies and South Africa. The head to head match between those sides was won by West Indies, so West Indies go through and South Africa are eliminated
In the event of a draw/tie, then the final final points table is this.
SL 18
WI 18
RSA 16
NZ 16
However, New Zealand won the head to head with South Africa, so South Africa are eliminated
If West Indies defeats Sri Lanka, then the final points table is
WI 20
SL 16
NZ 16
SA 16
In this instance, each of the three teams on 16 points defeated one of the other teams on 16 points, and lost to the other, so head to head results don't count. In this instance, we go to runrate, and if South Africa can produce a net run rate better than either NZ or SL, then South will proceed to the next stage.
We thus conclude two things
1) West Indies have qualified for the Super Six stage.
2) South Africa can only make the Super Six stage if they beat Sri Lanka, West Indies also beat Sri Lanka, and South Africa have a better net run rate than do one of SL or NZ.
This is a very tall order.
If New Zealand do play and win their game in Kenya, then their place in the Super Six would be guaranteed. The tables above would be the same, except that in all cases New Zealand would have four extra points. For South Africa to qualify they again would need to beat Sri Lanka and West Indies also would need to beat Sri Lanka. In that instance, South Africa would go through on the head to head with SL, and the run rate would not come into it.
In the event that one of the "minnows" were to beat one of the "good teams", then the situation could conceivably change. However, this is most unlikely to happen in Group B.
It is really too early to tell who is going to go through from group A, other than that Australia will finish up on at least 20 points and will make the Super Six stage. There are still four matches between "good teams" to go; Aus v Eng, Pak v Eng, Ind v Eng, and Ind v Pak. Any two of these three teams could make the Super Six stage.
There is also a greater possibility of an upset in Group A. Having already received four points for a default against England, things would get interesting if Zimbabwe were to win a match against India, Pakistan, or Australia. In that case Zimbabwe would end up with 16 points and might well make the Super Six stage. I don't think this is terribly likely, but Zimbabwe (unlike the other "minnows") are good enough to cause an upset occasionally.
