This blog is essentially for sidebars of stuff on my regular blog. If I think something is a little esoteric for the narrative of that blog, it goes here
Okay, so today Sri Lanka beat West Indies in Group B
If West Indies had won today, they would be almost certainly through, but they didn't. Today's result makes Sri Lankan qualification more likely, and West Indian less likely, but still, nothing is certain. There are two important games to go: Bangladesh v Kenya and Sri Lanka v South Africa.
The possibilites:
Look at Kenya v Bangladesh. If Kenya lose this game, Kenya will be eliminated. In this case
If Sri Lanka beat South Africa, the final table will be this
SL 20
NZ 16
WI 14
RSA 12
Kenya 12
and SL, NZ and WI go through
If Sri Lanka lose to South Africa, the final table will be
SL 16
NZ 16
RSA 16
WI 14
Kenya 12
and SL, NZ, RSA go though.
If the match is a tie or no result, we get
SL 18
NZ 16
RSA 14
WI 14
Kenya 12
and SL, NZ and WI go through, since WI beat RSA head to head.
If on the other hand, Kenya beat Bangladesh, which is likely, things get interesting
In this case, if Sri Lanka beat South Africa, we get
SL 20
NZ 16
Kenya 16
WI 14
RSA 12
and SL, NZ and Kenya go through.
If Sri Lanka lose to South Africa, the final table will be
SL 16
NZ 16
RSA 16
Kenya 16
WI 14
In this case, we look at head to head. Sri Lanka will have beaten NZ only out of the four teams on 16 points. New Zealand will have beaten South Africa only. South Africa will have beaten Kenya and Sri Lanka. Kenya will have beaten New Zealand (by default) and Sri Lanka. Kenya and South Africa go through, and out of New Zealand and Sri Lanka, the team with the better net run rate will go through.
If the match is tied or no result, then
SL 18
NZ 16
Kenya 16
WI 14
RSA 14
and SL, NZ and Kenya go through.
If Kenya and Bangladesh is drawn or no result then:
If SL beats RSA, then
SL 20
NZ 16
Ken 14
WI 14
RSA 12
and SL, NZ and WI go through.
If RSA beat SL, then
SL 16
NZ 16
RSA 16
Ken 14
WI 14
Okay, there are two important games to go in Group A. Australia play England and India play Pakistan. At this point, one has to expect that Australia will beat England, given that England looked dreadful today, and Australia have won every game the two sides have played for more than four years (13 games in a row, or something like that). If this happens, then India v Pakistan becomes the key. In this case, if India beat Pakistan, the final table becomes this
Aus 24
Ind 20
Eng 12
Pak 12
Zim 12
Australia and India qualify. England will have beaten Pakistan who will have beaten Zimbabwe who will have beaten England, so it comes down to net runrate. England are likely to have the best net runrate in this instance, and they would qualify too.
If Pakistan beats India, we get
Aus 24
Ind 16
Pak 16
Eng 12
Zim 12
And Australia, India and Pakistan qualify. In the event that India and Pakistan draw or no result, we get
Aus 24
Ind 18
Pak 14
Eng 12
Zim 12
and again Aus, Ind and Pak qualify.
If on the other hand England beat Australia,
If India beats Pakistan, we get
Aus 20
Ind 20
Eng 16
Pak 12
Zim 12
and Aus, India and England Qualify.
If England beats Aus and Pak beats India, then
Aus 20
Eng 16
Ind 16
Pak 16
Zim 12
Australia qualifies. Since England beat Pakistan who beat India who beat England, it again come down to net runrate. Pakistan probably miss out in that instance
If England beat Australia and Pak v Ind is no result or tied,
Aus 20
Ind 18
Eng 16
Pak 14
Zim 12
and Australia, India and England qualify.
Finally, we must consider what happens if Australia v England is a draw or tie.
If this happens and India beat Pakistan, we get
Aus 22
Ind 20
Eng 14
Pak 12
And Aus, Ind and Eng qualify
If Pak beat India
Aus 22
Ind 16
Pak 16
Eng 14
and Australia, India and Pakistan qualify.
If India-Pakistan is drawn or no result,
Aus 22
Ind 18
Pak 14
Eng 14
England beat Pakistan, so England go through.
Everything above presupposes Zimbabwe do not beat Pakistan. In the event that they do, the result is that England, India and Zimbabwe go through in virtually all cases.
Okay, today Kenya scored a huge upset by beating Sri Lanka. With Kenya's default over New Zealand last week, Kenya are now a real chance to make the Super Six stage. Whereas we previously thought that the only important remaining games were SL v WI and SL v RSA, the Kenya v Bangladesh game also now becomes extremely important.
As a starting point, Look at Kenya v Bangladesh. If Kenya lose this game, Kenya will be eliminated. In this case
If Sri Lanka beat both West Indies and South Africa, the final table will be this
SL 20
NZ 16
WI 14
RSA 12
Kenya 12
and SL, NZ and WI go through
If Sri Lanka beat West Indies but not South Africa, the final table will be
SL 16
NZ 16
RSA 16
WI 14
Kenya 12
and SL, NZ, RSA go though.
IF SL beat South Africa but not WI, we get
WI 18
SL 16
NZ 16
RSA 12
Kenya 12
and WI, SL and NZ go through.
IF SL lose both matches, we get
WI 18
NZ 16
RSA 16
SL 12
Kenya 12
and WI, NZ, and RSA go through.
If on the other hand, Kenya beat Bangladesh, which is likely, things get interesting
In this case, if Sri Lanka beat both West Indies and South Africa, we get
SL 20
NZ 16
Kenya 16
WI 14
RSA 12
and SL, NZ and Kenya go through.
If Sri Lanka beat West Indies but not South Africa, the final table will be
SL 16
NZ 16
RSA 16
Kenya 16
WI 14
In this case, we look at head to head. Sri Lanka will have beaten NZ only out of the four teams on 16 points. New Zealand will have beaten South Africa only. South Africa will have beaten Kenya and Sri Lanka. Kenya will have beaten New Zealand (by default) and Sri Lanka. Kenya and South Africa go through, and out of New Zealand and Sri Lanka, the team with the better net run rate will go through.
IF SL beat South Africa but not WI, we get
WI 18
SL 16
NZ 16
Kenya 16
RSA 12
West Indies go through. Kenya will have beaten both New Zealand and Sri Lanka and they go through. Sri Lanka have beaten New Zealand, and they go through.
IF SL lose both matches, we get
WI 18
NZ 16
RSA 16
Kenya 16
SL 12
and WI go through. NZ have beaten South Africa, who have beaten Kenya who have beaten NZ (by default). In this case it all comes down to net runrate.
There are another 19 possible cases if ties and no results are taken into account. This I shall leave as an exercise for the reader.
Basically though, it is now very complicated. If South Africa beat SL, they are almost certain of making the Super Six. The worst they can end up with is having to go down to runrate. If South Africa lose, they are gone. (Today's result has made things (slightly) better for RSA).
If West Indies beat SL, they are certain of a Super Six place. If they lose, they almost certainly miss out. (Today's result has made the situation worse for West Indies. Last week they looked almost certain to go through even if they lost).
If SL beat South Africa, they go through. If they lose to South Africa but beat West Indies, it comes down to runrate.
New Zealand on the other hand are in not such a great position. If Bangladesh beat Kenya, NZ are fine. If not, then NZ need to hope that SL win both their remaining matches. If this doesn't happen, the best NZ can hope for is everything coming down to runrate. The worst is that they get eliminated without even this happening.
If Kenya beat Bangladesh, they are probably through. Their worst possible case is that it comes down to runrate but in most cases Kenya are through automatically.
